Western States 2026: the race starts today
From Squaw Valley to Auburn
The gun goes at 05:00 Pacific time this morning. 369 runners leave the Palisades Tahoe base and head into the Sierra Nevada — 100.2 miles, 18,000 feet of gain and 23,000 feet of descent, finishing at Placer High School track in Auburn. The first finishers will be there before dark. Most won't.
Western States is the oldest 100-mile trail race in the world and still, half a century on, the one the sport's best runners most want to win. That hasn't changed. What has changed this year is the conditions — and conditions here matter more than almost anywhere else on the calendar.
The weather: everything points to fast
The forecast is cool. Not just cool by Western States standards — cool by any standard. Race week analysis points to temperatures tracking closely with 2019 and 2023, the two most recent years in which course records fell. The 2019 race produced Jim Walmsley's men's mark of 14:09. The 2023 race produced Courtney Dauwalter's women's record of 15:29.
The consensus among predictors — and on this question there is genuine consensus — is that the men's record will fall today. Every single time call from the week's preview coverage put the men's winner under 14:09. Most put them under 14:00. The Stanford ECHO Lab's statistical model, controlling for temperature and the long-term downward trend in winning times, projects 13:42. David Roche called 13:49. Dylan Bowman went 13:52. Corrine Malcolm, the boldest call of the bunch, went 13:38.
The women's record is more contested. It sits at 15:29 and opinions split almost evenly — four of the week's major previews say it falls, four say it just survives. The weather doesn't decide these things alone, but it creates the possibility. Today, the possibility is real.
The men's race: Walmsley vs. Jornet, again — differently
Jim Walmsley holds the course record, four victories, and essentially unanimous support from every major preview outlet. The prediction sheet compiled from this week's podcasts and columns — Singletrack, iRunFar, Freetrail, Aid Station Fireball — shows every single predictor picking Walmsley to win. That level of consensus at a race this deep is unusual.
What makes this year different from the previous Walmsley-Jornet matchups is the uncertainty around Kilian. Jornet ran 14:19 here last year — well inside the previous course record — and still finished third. Since then he's dealt with knee issues and an interrupted build post-Zegama. He has taken the start, which tells you something about how he's feeling. But his preparation has not been ideal, and the Jornet who lines up today is a question mark in a way he rarely is.
Behind the two headliners, the depth is real. Hans Troyer won Black Canyon this year and appears in every top-five prediction. Hayden Hawks and Adam Peterman both have the speed to go out aggressively early, and a cool day will make that gamble more sustainable. Zach Miller, Jeff Mogavero, and Dan Jones round out the field most predictors are paying attention to. European additions Francesco Puppi, Thomas Cardin, and Vincent Bouillard add international flavour to what is already a stacked field.
One of the week's more interesting calls came from Tropical John Medinger: "someone runs approximately 13:50 and still only finishes second." If Walmsley goes out at the pace his fitness and today's conditions allow, that may not be hyperbole.
The consensus race-dynamics read: the canyons — not Foresthill — are the real crux. A high-carb fueling strategy on a cool day unlocks late-race running that simply isn't possible in the heat. Expect the leaders to be moving hard out of Foresthill and all the way to the track.
The women's race: Hall defends, but the field is exceptional
Abby Hall arrives as defending champion and the most widely picked favourite. Six of the week's major prediction columns have her winning; several of the others rank her second. She is the field's benchmark.
Jennifer Lichter is the most compelling challenger and appears in more first-place picks than anyone outside Hall herself. Marianne Hogan, Fuzhao Xiang, and Martyna Mlynarczyk complete the core group most analysts are looking at for the podium.
Tara Dower is worth watching separately. David Roche flagged her specifically in his SWAP preview — he sees a potential "next Courtney" breakout, naming Dower and Martyna Mlynarczyk as the runners most likely to make that kind of leap. The conditions today are exactly the kind that accelerate those moments.
Yngvild Kaspersen, Lotti Brinks, Hannah Allgood, and Molly Seidel deepen the field considerably. Katie Asmuth's call — "seven women hit Foresthill within 90 seconds of each other" — captures the texture of this race better than a prediction sheet. The front of the women's field may run together for a very long time before anyone forces a decision.
Sally McRae and Corrine Malcolm both think the winning top two or three women arrive at the track almost simultaneously. If they're right, the last mile could be something.
When to follow
The lead men will reach the Foresthill checkpoint (mile 62) somewhere around the 10-hour mark — mid-afternoon Pacific time. The track finish for the men's winner will likely be between 17:00 and 18:30 PT. The women's winner is probably an hour to 90 minutes after that.
Western States has live tracking and continuous coverage at westernstates.org and irunfar.com throughout the day.
If you follow any of the athletes in this field on Crewed, your 30-minute pre-race notification was ready to go this morning.
The app
A quick note on Crewed while we have your attention.
The app is settling into a clearer shape. The two things we're building toward are: a genuinely great news hub — articles, podcasts, and video from the outlets and athletes the trail and ultra community actually follows, all in one place — and GPS-based tools that help runners stay safe and connected out on the mountain, built for the people who are actually doing this.
Everything that wasn't one of those two things is being cut. The goal is an app that does two things well, not twelve things adequately.
Android is live on the Play Store. iOS launches in early August. If you haven't downloaded it yet and you're watching Western States today, now is a good time.
Race coverage and results to follow.